24Sep2:20 pmEST

Make Me Beautiful, Natural Gas

Natural gas had quietly been on fire this week. In particular, given the focus elsewhere on rates, crude, diesel, and just about every other typical distraction in this cycle from Washington, AI, Iran, and the like, it is quite easy to see how even a ferocious move like this in natty could be overlooked or even outright ignored as irrelevant....

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23Sep3:37 pmEST

I Didn't Put Nothin' Up!

As one of our astute Members, Stu, noted several times of late, gasoline could easily be leading crude higher here, even with tons of focus from the White House on diesel all of a sudden.  And that gasoline leadership sure seems to be the case today, with the UGA ETF (for rolling gasoline prices nationwide), below on the daily chart, pushes to...

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22Sep3:24 pmEST

Again

Despite a Fed rate hike last week, not to mention another one in play by the end of this calendar year, it is quite clear that we have a White House not only hell-bent on downplaying inflation but also outright flaming the fire to run it hotter than ever.  As we have noted before, here and with Members, gold often flourishes in a scenario where...

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21Sep3:08 pmEST

Houthis Don't Surf!

As we have noted since March, it is virtually impossible to successfully fight to win a war while also sweating every single tick across several markets. The latest version of this theory was put into praxis again this weekend, as President Trump reversed his own decision a few times regarding whether to help the Saudis fight the Houthis via...

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18Sep2:28 pmEST

Afternoon Update 09/18/26 {Video}

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17Sep3:12 pmEST

Chopped

As difficult as it is to believe and trade through on a daily basis, the Nasdaq has indeed gone entirely sideways for more than four months at this point, as illustrated by the Nasdaq-100 Index weekly chart, below.  The bullish interpretation of this action is that we have corrected "through time," rather than through price, and that an...

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16Sep11:25 amEST

Slow Playing It

With well over a 90% probability of The Fed hiking by 25bps later today, unless Kevin Warsh and the Committee intend to break an extensive pattern of following market expectations we can expect a higher Federal Funds rate by day's end.  However, as we noted yesterday and in recent videos for Members, there is a distinct possibility that 25bps...

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14Sep12:51 pmEST

A Big Round Number Fetish

Rates on the 10-Year Note popped above 5% for the first time in years this morning, in effect rivaling multi-decade highs, before reversing to red and dipping down to 4.94% as I write this.  As we have noted here and with Members over the years, markets have an odd tendency to fetishize big, round numbers. Here, we are talking about 5.0% (or 50...

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11Sep2:39 pmEST

Afternoon Update 09/11/26 {Video}

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10Sep3:26 pmEST

You Haven't Gotten Away With it Yet

It has been five years since I stuck my neck out with a strongly held view that Treasuries had topped out, back in the late-summer/autumn of 2021. At the time, very few folks even acknowledged that a top in Treasuries could be possible. After all, we had the Jerome Powell Fed hellbent on letting "it (the economy [and markets]) run hot," as...

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