20Aug1:28 pmEST

Moo Moo Buckaroo

A mere one trading session after the Treasury announced support for the long end of the curve yesterday we have Treasuries lower today as rates on the 10-Year out to the 30-Year move back higher. Beyond that, Treasury Secretary Bessent is out and about with tons of comments about, perhaps, raising the amount of buybacks to support said long...

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19Aug2:41 pmEST

Market Message to Warsh: You Have No Marbles!

Despite some hawkish Fed Minutes released earlier this afternoon from the July FOMC, markets seem to be of the mindset that Kevin Warsh and his Committee need to actually demonstrate their concerns  about inflation by actually hiking rates at the September FOMC, rather than merely paying it lip service.  On the updated odds of a hike in...

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18Aug2:06 pmEST

Annyeonghaseyo to This Indicator

We know that the semiconductors are having a sizable down session today as I write this. However, gauging South Korea (via the EWY country ETF, seen on the updated daily chart, below) confirms this unwind, given the historically high leverage and speculation  in South Korea relative to AI and the semis.  Note the recent steep rally since...

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17Aug3:10 pmEST

What a Beautiful Day

With rates on the long bond (30-year T-bond) hitting nineteen year highs today, and getting a fair amount of media coverage for doing so, market players are finally starting to realize that The Fed only controls the overnight (or Federal Funds Rate), at least for the time being. In a similar vein, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent...

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14Aug3:18 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/14/26 {Video}

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13Aug3:16 pmEST

Slow Summer Wind Days

With Labor Day falling a bit later than usual this year, we still have roughly three and half week left of summer trading. And it may as well be three months, with the way this market is trading. By now, the "dispersion" trade is fairly obvious, with day-to-day rotations propping up the indices despite some heavy drawdowns in the AI/Mag7 names...

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12Aug3:19 pmEST

Make Him Proud

It has been an exceedingly rough five years for shares of Wendy's, as the fast food titan has suffered amid constant concerns that the iconic brand (thrust into the spotlight by Dave Thomas decades ago) has stayed too long at the dance. Specifically, the overall quality of the products and services seemed to be suffering, with various store...

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11Aug3:30 pmEST

Escape from Hormuz

My friend Jon Krinsky put out a piece today magnifying just how much of an outlier this price action has truly been. On his chart, below, we can see that 2026 would be the only year in at least thirty years that had zero 80% downside volume days. Of course, the year is far from over, as we head into tomorrow morning's CPI inflation print.  But...

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10Aug2:56 pmEST

It's in the Reaction

We have looked at the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen currency cross, which was at the epicenter of the late-July intervention by both the Treasury and the Japanese Ministry of Finance ("MoF"). But for the sake of continuity, the first daily chart, below, is an ETF for the Japanese Yen, the FXY. You can clearly see the late-July intervention designed...

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07Aug2:58 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/07/26 {Video}

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