14Jul3:18 pmEST

Deflation in Mirror is Smaller Than it Appears

As you would expect we have the White House and bulls/doves at-large feeling their oats over this morning's cold CPI print. Without question, the hard correction in oil, gasoline, and most commodities since May affected the print, leading many to declare that inflation has, once again, been conquered and we can expect much lower gas prices from...

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13Jul2:35 pmEST

Stocks and Bonds Down, Tolls and Trolls Up

One of the forgotten aspects about the 1987 crash was that the debacle actually started in Asia the evening before, with several Asian markets exceeding the losses in America. The best example of this phenomenon was Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng Index plummeted 45.8% in a single day, causing the exchange to close entirely for several days. The...

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10Jul2:54 pmEST

Afternoon Update 07/10/26 {Video}

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09Jul3:28 pmEST

Addicted to Chaos and Drama

It almost seems as though several asset classes these days, especially equities, have become addicted to the daily and nightly chaos we are seeing now, be it the swirling Iran headlines, Japanese Yen weakness and possible interventions, bond market softness here in America, an AI bubble which always seems to fight back to remain intact, or the...

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08Jul3:17 pmEST

Another Crack Epidemic

Crack spreads (profit margins for refinery firms, derived from processing sludgy crude oil into products like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, even lubricants and asphalt) continue to spike higher in the face of a sharp correction in crude itself since mid-May.  Courtesy of @Rory_Johnston on X, the first chat, below, shows crack spreads specifically...

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07Jul3:24 pmEST

I'm Sorry I Ruined Your Oil Bear Party

Just as oil bulls are being mocked, castigated, and generally laughed off the stage on a daily basis as both the White House and various oil bears take one victory lap after the next, we have crude popping nicely today amid reports of escalations in the Middle East.  As we have been noting with Members of late, the most likely explanation...

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06Jul1:05 pmEST

Pump Up the Jam

President Trump is out with various, explicit "Trump Pumps" today, be with DELL stock, the market at-large by launching his "Trump Accounts," and ringing the opening bell this morning to accompany some wildly optimistic remarks about future prices of equities. At this point, an  old techno song  may as well be the theme song for this White...

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02Jul3:15 pmEST

Afternoon Update 07/02/26 {Video}

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01Jul2:53 pmEST

Tilting the Odds

Amid the steep selloff in tech and especially semiconductors today to kick off the new month and quarter, it seems to be lost in the shuffle that both the banks and insurers (the latter on the ETF monthly chart, second below, breaking out) are rallying sharply. Recall that both the banks and insurance firms are seen as "rate-sensitive," meaning...

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30Jun1:49 pmEST

You Come to Expect the Fight

Despite Treasuries topping out during the pandemic (which means rates on the long end of the curve bottomed) we still have not yet seen a classic panic/washout bottom in the bond market. Bond bulls remain steadfast that a new bull market in bonds is just around the corner, either due to money leaving equities and commodities during a...

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