Trading Ideas

08Jan11:24 amEST

Here's the Setup

Apple, as well as NVIDIA and the semiconductors at-large, is leading a tech relief rally so far this morning. We have a quintessential backloaded week of news and events, what with the CPI Thursday morning, then PPI on Friday alongside a plethora of large cap bank earnings to kick off a new season of reporting--Note that the likes of JPM have...

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07Jan10:44 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 01/07/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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05Jan11:25 amEST

I Still Think it Matters

As we noted here and with Members earlier this week, the 4725 area on the S&P 500 Index had turned into tough near-term price resistance.  And after this morning's hot jobs report, the initial selloff-turned-squeeze now seems to be slowing down right around that area, as seen and highlighted on the updated 10-minute S&P chart, below. ...

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04Jan2:24 pmEST

Choose the Right Dip in 2024

One of my early observations about the tape this morning on the private Twitter feed for Members was that the market had the feel of coasting into tomorrow morning's jobs report.  In other words, after selling off for the first few days of 2024, after previously melting up to cap of 2023, a bit of a mixed, drifting session was likely in order...

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03Jan10:25 amEST

Bears Should Come to Broad and Wall

“If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” -Stock Trader's Almanac's founder, Yale Hirsch Beyond representing one of those catchy one-liners folks in involved with markets love to say and hear, there is actual historical evidence that the new calendar year may spell trouble for bulls if the "Santa Rally" period...

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02Jan10:30 amEST

Slow Your New Year's Roll

Just as folks quickly become bored or impatient with their new year's resolutions (e,g. to hit the gym more), it is quite easy to burn yourself out as a trader after the holiday season if you hit the ground running too quickly once the calendar flips.  Case in point: We are actually still in the midst of the "Santa Rally" period on Wall Street,...

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29Dec1:47 pmEST

One Final Chart for 2023

Courtesy of Hi Mount Research, the chart below has been making the rounds on Twitter of late.  Here we can see that when we have excessive equity exposure, on a historical basis, by households, it leads to prolonged periods of sideways/down markets as a contrarian measure.  There can be a little of a lag before this kicks in, as we saw with the...

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28Dec1:36 pmEST

Holiday Malaise

We are right smack in the middle of that awkward period where Christmas is clearly in the rear-view mirror, with leftovers having been exhausted and playing Christmas music seems out of place, but New Year's is still a few days ahead of us and the calendar has not yet flipped. It is still the holiday season, for all intents and purposes, but a...

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27Dec3:22 pmEST

I Feel Sorry for Your Latte

Starbucks continues to act poorly into the final days of 2023, a surefire sign that fund managers have little interest in having the name on their books. For a good while now, we have noted the SBUX relative weakness both here and with Members.  Despite that, on the long-term SBUX quarterly chart, updated below, the major uptrend for years is...

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26Dec2:02 pmEST

Putting Out a BOLO This Week

I am putting out a BOLO this week.  Used mostly by law enforcement, BOLO is an acronym that means "be on the lookout." And when we note that this final holiday week of the calendar year tends to, usually quite handily, be the lightest trading volume days of the year, we simply must be aware of trading stocks which normally are not considered...

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21Dec12:16 pmEST

Let's Just Chalk it Up to Cultural Differences

The "Santa Rally" is an actual and seriously tracked phenomenon on Wall Street, not just some urban legend. It officially starts tomorrow, since the market is closed on Monday for Christmas. In a way, it almost seems like an entirely different market culture during the holidays.  Specifically, the Santa Rally is the last five trading days of...

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20Dec1:21 pmEST

Quite the Picture

Freeport-McMoran, the domestic (Arizona-based)  molybdenum producer with tons of copper and gold exposure, too, used to be one of the most prominent stocks in the entire market about thirteen-fifteen years ago.  Back then, we had some ephemeral inflation head-fakes, where folks keyed off FCX for inflationary tells during its exhilarating...

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18Dec11:53 amEST

Steel Yourself for This Sector {Video}

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17Dec11:11 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 12/17/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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15Dec1:56 pmEST

Watch Your Back, Even During the Holidays

The next official sustained period of seasonal weakness is not until late-January/February. However, into the market melt-up it is likely worth noting sectors which have squeezed back up to what should be difficult levels on a long-term basis.  The commercial real estate stocks in the IYR ETF, below on the weekly timeframe, represent one such...

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14Dec2:31 pmEST

Once Again, Will You Remember Genco?

Lost in the shuffle of all the Fed victory laps, emotions, and general news flow this week has been the $2.1 billion merger between SBLK and EGLE  to form the U.S.'s largest dry-bulk shipping company.  About a week or two prior to the merge we had noted the strength in Eagle both here and with Members. In addition, we thought Genco (GNK, on...

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12Dec1:12 pmEST

All Roads Lead to Rome...And The Fed

There is little point in bemoaning or bellowing over the fact that all market roads seem to lead to The Fed these days. Simply put, it is one of the main byproducts of the response by The Fed and then-Chair Ben Bernanke to the financial crisis back in 2008/2009.  Back then, in the most dire days of that bear market, investors where begging and...

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11Dec3:03 pmEST

A Divergence, I Reckon

This will be a critical week for many markets, of course, headed into 2024 with the FOMC on Wednesday. The next FOMC after this one will not happen until the final day of January of next year.  In particular, gold and silver metals are getting hit again today, with silver down hard over the last six trading sessions after its prior steep rally...

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10Dec10:39 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 12/10/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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07Dec1:24 pmEST

Things Are Happening in Brazil

We know China has displayed terrible price action of late, as seen on the FXI country ETF on the second daily chart, below. Indeed, YANG (a levered BEAR ETF) has been a Watchlist trade idea for Members in the service for a while. Obviously, China is oversold now. But the fact remains the weakness has been persistent, even if we see an oversold...

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